Market Snapshot November 12th 2026

CoreWeave Jumped 25% and Lifted the Nasdaq 1.6%, the Dollar Hit a Four-Week High as USD/JPY Neared 160 and EUR/USD Broke 1.11, Gold Fell Below $4,000, and Nvidia Dropped 8% After Hours on a Report Its Board Is Preparing to Replace Its CEO

Data

Theme: “Dollar Up, AI Up, Then Nvidia Down” — With the US bond market closed for Veterans Day, the reaction to Tuesday’s hot CPI ran through the dollar. The dollar index rose about 0.6–0.7% to around 102.9, its highest since 14 October; EUR/USD fell below 1.11 for the first time since May 2025; and USD/JPY reached about 159.7–159.9, its highest since 2 September, within reach of the 160 level associated with Japanese intervention. Spot gold fell about 1% to below $4,000. In equities, CoreWeave rose 24.7% after Tuesday’s beat-and-raise, chip stocks rallied, Apple hit a record, and the Nasdaq rose 1.60%. After the close, Nvidia fell about 8% in after-hours trading after The Wall Street Journal reported its board was preparing to oust chief executive Jensen Huang. Brent rose 1.4% to $92.76 as Iran’s security chief rejected a key US nuclear demand.

Wednesday, 11 November 2026 was Veterans Day: US stocks traded normally, but the bond market was closed, so there are no Treasury closes for the day. Parts I, II, III and V cover Wednesday; Part IV looks to Thursday, 12 November, when Treasuries reopen and the UK publishes third-quarter GDP.

📌 Corrections and Clarifications

  1. Tuesday’s dollar close differs by source. Tuesday’s edition gave the dollar index at about 102.33–102.38 (+0.67–0.70%), from Trading Economics and FXStreet. IC Markets gives a Tuesday close of 102.24 (+0.55%). The difference is timing; the direction and scale are the same.
  2. Nvidia’s results date: 16 or 17 November. Tuesday’s edition gave 17 November. BigGo and Bloomingbit give 16 November; earlier sources (VistaP, TIKR) gave 17 November. This publication will confirm the date before the event.
  3. Bowman’s remarks were found. Tuesday’s edition listed only Waller and Logan. Fed Governor (and Vice Chair for Supervision) Michelle Bowman also spoke on Tuesday evening after the CPI (see section 2).
  4. Anthropic’s IPO range. Tuesday’s edition could not retrieve it. Yahoo reports the company is seeking up to $1.4 trillion at the top of a $70–78 per-share range, with trading possibly starting next week. Disclosure: this report is prepared with the assistance of Claude, an AI model developed by Anthropic. This publication has no view on the offering and reports it only as market news.

💱 1. The Dollar Carried the CPI Reaction

Pair Wednesday Change Note
Dollar index (DXY) 102.86–102.93 +0.6% to +0.7% 🟩 Highest since 14 Oct (ChainCatcher); TE 102.93
EUR/USD Below 1.1100 About −0.56% 🟥 First time below 1.11 since May 2025
GBP/USD ~1.3274 More than −0.5% 🟥 From 1.3459 before CPI
USD/JPY ~159.7–159.9 About +0.7% 🟥 Highest since 2 Sep; above 159
AUD/USD Near 0.69 Bounced off a multi-month low FXStreet headline
US Treasuries Closed — Veterans Day

 

DXY from Trading Economics and ChainCatcher; EUR and GBP from ChainCatcher (late New York); USD/JPY from Kitco (159.857 at noon ET), MQL5 (159.70) and FXStreet. Levels are approximate and from different times.

Without Treasuries trading, the dollar was the only place for the CPI and the Fed’s hawkish comments to show. The move was broad: the euro, sterling and the yen all fell. The dollar index rose by roughly as much on Wednesday as on Tuesday, so over two days it is up about 1.2–1.4%.

USD/JPY broke out of the 156–159 range it had held since late September, and is now near 160 for the first time since early September (FXStreet). MUFG’s Derek Halpenny: USD/JPY “has returned closer to the 160-level, above which intervention becomes a much greater prospect.” ING’s Chris Turner: “The broadly strong dollar means that USD/JPY could easily push through resistance at 159, but we increasingly think investors will be looking to acquire cheap yen should USD/JPY push above 160 again.” Both banks see medium-term risk skewed toward yen strength, citing intervention risk and an increasingly hawkish BoJ. In earlier interviews, Finance Minister Katayama described USD/JPY levels above 160 before July’s coordinated intervention as “extremely weak,” and has said she is coordinating with US Treasury Secretary Bessent.

EUR/USD below 1.11 is a 17-month low. RoboForex noted German final CPI and ECB speakers on the day; the euro fell regardless. IC Markets argues the midterm result has given the Fed “greater freedom to focus on inflation,” and says traders’ focus is shifting from whether the Fed hikes in December to how far rates could rise in early 2027. That is IC Markets’ view.

🏛️ 2. Bowman Joins the Hawks

Speaker What was reported
Governor Michelle Bowman (Tuesday evening) “Bringing inflation down remains a priority”; “CPI data suggests inflation pressures may persist”; core PCE “likely rose 3.3% in October on energy prices, AI-related demand”; “focused on financial stability risks if AI returns fall short”; labour market has improved but is “not tight, not adding to inflation”; longer-term expectations “very well anchored”; the Fed must weigh the costs of additional tightening (FXStreet). MQL5: she “stopped short of explicitly endorsing a rate hike.” A Yahoo headline describes her view as inflation broadening and rate hikes possibly needed
Context In May, Bowman argued the Fed should look through a short-lived energy spike (Bloomberg Law, Mortgage Professional America)

 

Bowman’s shift matters more than her words. In May she was the clearest voice for looking through the energy shock; now she says inflation pressures may persist and links core PCE to AI-related demand, as Goolsbee and Barkin did on Monday. Three officials in three days have pointed to AI demand as an inflation driver. She also flagged financial-stability risk if AI returns fall short, the first time this publication has seen a Fed official link the AI boom to both inflation and financial stability on the same day.

Her estimate of 3.3% core PCE for October is the key number for the Fed. PCE is due later in November, and Logan said on Tuesday she was worried it could move higher.

🥇 3. Gold — Below $4,000 on the Dollar

Instrument Level Change Source / time
Spot gold $3,981.53–3,992.00 −$39.80 to −$50.85 (−1.0% to −1.3%) Kitco 1:28pm ET; Trading Economics
Spot gold, noon $4,000.30 −0.81% Kitco
Spot gold, Asian morning ~$4,036–4,045 Slight rebound Mitrade; Forbes; Investorideas
Gold futures (December), Tuesday settlement $4,030.20 −2.05% Reference
Silver, early $52.52 +2.53% TheStreet

 

No December futures settlement was found for Wednesday. Gold’s 2026 spot low is about $3,866–3,870 (Forbes, Discovery Alert).

Gold rebounded slightly in Asia, then fell below $4,000 as the dollar rallied through the European and US sessions. With Treasuries closed, the dollar was the only rates-related signal, and gold moved against it, as the rates-and-dollar channel predicts. That is the sixth session in a row the channel has fitted. Oil rose 1.4% and gold fell, so the inverse oil link happened to fit too, but this publication now treats oil as secondary for gold.

Levels: support $3,950, then $3,870 (2026 low); resistance $4,000, then $4,030 (Tuesday’s settlement). Investorideas’ Aamir Iqbal noted the opportunity cost of holding gold “while the 10-year pays 5%”; Mitrade had support at $4,025–4,036, which broke. The test on Thursday is how gold reacts when Treasuries reopen and catch up with two days of dollar strength.

🛢️ 4. Oil — A Small Premium Returns

Contract Settlement Change Note
Brent (January) $92.76 +$1.27 (+1.39%) SBS (ICE)
WTI (December) $86.53 +$0.49 (+0.57%) SBS (NYMEX); Bloomberg +0.6%
Brent–WTI spread $6.23 From $5.45 🟥 Widened
Brent, intraday high $93.08 +1.7% at 13:06 GMT Invezz

 

Settlements from SBS citing ICE and NYMEX; Bloomberg says Brent “settled below $93.” World Oil Monitor shows $93.27 and WTI $87.08 at a later close; this publication uses the settlements.

Brent rebounded for the first time in four sessions. The main driver was Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, who told Al Mayadeen that Iran would not remove “a single atom” of enriched nuclear material from the country (Bloomberg), rejecting a key US condition for negotiations. EnergyNow also cited renewed shipping attacks around Hormuz. Bloomberg summarised: hostilities remained muted, but with no sign of progress in talks.

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report Detail (Invezz)
OPEC+ crude output, October 41.23m bpd, up 2.04m bpd from September
Demand outlook Held unchanged
Timing Released about 10:43 GMT; Brent’s rebound was already under way
EIA (reference) Expects Brent spot to average about $100 in November and December

 

OPEC+ added 2 million barrels a day in a single month and Brent still rose. That shows how much the market is now trading the talks rather than supply: a surge in output that would normally push prices down was outweighed by one statement from Tehran. The Brent–WTI spread widened from $5.45 to $6.23, so a small part of the Gulf premium returned.

📈 5. The Session

Index Close Change Note
Nasdaq Composite 25,466.19 +400.31 (+1.60%) 🟩 Led by chips
S&P 500 7,619.38 +98.45 (+1.31%) 🟩
Dow Jones 52,486.49 +254.60 (+0.49%) 🟩
Russell 2000 2,846.26 +24.88 (+0.88%) 🟩
VIX Lower — Level not found

 

Closes from TheStreet and Yahoo. Year to date (Yahoo): S&P 500 +9.5%, Dow +8.5%, Nasdaq +7.5%.

Semiconductors led the rally after CoreWeave’s results “reignited the AI trade” (Yahoo). Coherent rose 18%, Monolithic Power Systems 13.9% and Bloom Energy 13% by midday; Apple hit a record above $355.42, valuing it at about $5.16 trillion and up 31% this year (TheStreet). Consumer names lagged: Lululemon, Clorox, Brown-Forman and Airbnb fell 3.4–3.8%.

Stocks rose while the dollar rallied and Treasuries were closed. On Tuesday, a 14bp jump in the 2-year cost the S&P 500 only 0.38%; on Wednesday, AI earnings mattered more than the dollar. Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian was cautious: “We’re not particularly bullish on the index,” and she warned that the S&P 500 is the most crowded equity ticker (Yahoo).

Overseas (Yahoo widgets, times not stated): Nikkei +1.31% to 61,248.59; Hang Seng −0.98%; FTSE 100 +0.59% to 10,814.60. Bitcoin was about $73,530 (−1%).

Companies

Theme: “The AI Trade Without Its Leader” — CoreWeave rose 24.7% after Tuesday’s beat-and-raise and pulled the chip sector higher. Nvidia rose 2.9% in regular trading, then fell about 8% after hours on reports about its chief executive. In after-hours trading, AMD, Broadcom and Alphabet rose. For the AI trade, the question is no longer whether demand is there, which CoreWeave answered, but how the sector trades if its largest company is going through a leadership crisis.

☁️ 1. CoreWeave — +24.7%

Item Detail
Close $60.77, +$12.04 (+24.71%); −7% after hours on the Nvidia news (Yahoo)
What drove it Q3 revenue $3.66bn (+168%); 2026 guidance raised to $13.0–13.3bn; backlog $132.5bn; ~$9bn prepayments expected in three months; weighted average debt cost down 250bp y/y (Tuesday’s edition)
Context Down about 40–42% in the month before the report; options priced a ~15–16% move

 

The move was larger than the options market expected, and it lifted the whole AI chain. CoreWeave is the most leveraged company in the AI buildout, and its results answered the two worries of last week: demand (backlog up from $104bn to $132.5bn since June) and funding (lower debt costs, customer prepayments). CoreWeave is also an Nvidia-backed customer, so the after-hours Nvidia news took 7% back.

🟥 2. Nvidia — Up 2.9%, Then Down 8% After Hours

Time Event
Morning Baird’s Tristan Gerra cut Nvidia to Neutral in a note titled “Icarus’ Rise and Fall; Company Will be Fine,” and cut his price target to $200 from $500 (Yahoo, TheStreet). He said the downgrade should hold until uncertainty about the CEO’s tenure clears
Close $173.73, +2.92%; the first gain since the investigation was announced
After the close The New York Times reported Huang had a relationship with another Nvidia executive who reported to him; minutes later, The Wall Street Journal reported the board was preparing to oust him, and could meet as soon as Wednesday to decide his future (CNBC, CNN)
After hours About −8% to −9%; a low of $156.20 at 5:28pm ET (BNO News); about $159–160 later; market value about $3.85 trillion (BigGo)
Also reported The company is considering an interim CEO before choosing a permanent successor; the Trump administration is aware of the board’s preparations (Bloomingbit, citing the report). No decision has been disclosed
Rivals after hours AMD, Broadcom and Alphabet rose (Bloomingbit)

 

This publication reports the allegations as attributed to the named news organisations, does not name the other individuals, and treats the reports as unconfirmed by Nvidia.

This has become the most important single-stock event of the year for the AI trade. Nvidia is about $3.85 trillion in value, close to 7% of the S&P 500, and its co-founder has led it for three decades with no named successor. Analysts flagged key-person risk on Monday; the WSJ report turns that from a risk into a possible event. The market’s first reaction was to sell Nvidia and buy its competitors, which is the same pattern as Monday (Nvidia −4%, AMD +13%). That suggests investors see the AI demand story as intact and the risk as company-specific.

Over one week, the story has moved through three stages: a personal disclosure, a possible security and export-control question, and now a possible change of CEO. BigGo puts Nvidia’s after-hours value about $658 billion below its close on Friday 6 November, the last session before the disclosure.

📋 3. Other Movers

Company Move Note
Coherent 🟩 +18% Midday, TheStreet
Monolithic Power Systems 🟩 +13.9% Midday
Bloom Energy 🟩 +13% Midday
Apple 🟩 About +2%; record Above $355.42; $5.16 trillion; +31% this year
AMD, Broadcom 🟩 Higher No figures in sources; also higher after hours
Lululemon 🟥 −3.6% to −3.8% —
Clorox 🟥 −3.6% to −3.7% —
Brown-Forman 🟥 −3.4% —
Airbnb 🟥 −3.4% After last week’s 11.7% gain

 

Apple at a record is the counterpart to Nvidia’s troubles. Apple is the best-performing of the Magnificent 7 this year, up 31% (Yahoo), and CNN describes Nvidia as now the world’s second-most-valuable company. Apple is a buyer of AI capacity rather than a builder of it, which makes it a different kind of AI exposure from Nvidia.

🏦 4. Capital Markets

General

Theme: “A Holiday That Moved the Dollar” — Veterans Day removed Treasuries from the market for a day, and the dollar took the full weight of Tuesday’s CPI and the Fed’s hawkish turn. The result was a broad dollar rally that took EUR/USD to a 17-month low and USD/JPY to the edge of 160. In equities, AI demand and AI governance pulled in opposite directions on the same day.

  1. Two Days of Dollar Strength
Pair Before CPI (Tue morning) Wed late Two-day move
DXY ~101.4–101.7 ~102.9 🟩 About +1.2% to +1.4%
EUR/USD ~1.120 area Below 1.110 🟥 About −1%
GBP/USD 1.3459 ~1.3274 🟥 About −1.4%
USD/JPY 157.87 (Tue low) ~159.7–159.9 🟥 About +1.2%

 

Approximate, from MQL5, Trading Economics, ChainCatcher and Kitco. Pre-CPI levels are intraday.

Sterling has fallen most, despite the BoE’s hike last week. The BoE’s 8–1 decision was fully priced, and the UK publishes third-quarter GDP on Thursday. The yen is closest to an official response. For a Vietnam-based FX desk, the broad dollar move matters for regional currencies that track the dollar index; the yen move matters most for JPY-denominated trade and funding flows.

USD/JPY level What sources say
159.00 Former range top; broken on Wednesday (FXStreet)
159.80 Immediate resistance (FXStreet)
160.00 Level above which “intervention becomes a much greater prospect” (MUFG); ING expects buyers of “cheap yen” above it
160.40–160.50 FXStreet resistance; 2 September high near 160.50
MUFG range for November 156–160 (Exchange Rates UK, October)

 

This publication takes no view on whether Tokyo will intervene. But the setup is the same as before July’s coordinated intervention: a hawkish Fed, a widening rate gap, and the pair at 160. The difference this time is that the BoJ is also turning hawkish, which both MUFG and ING cite as a reason for medium-term yen strength.

  1. The Fed’s AI Argument Gets a Third Voice
Official Date On AI and inflation
Goolsbee (Chicago) Mon 9 Nov AI data-centre boom as “old-fashioned demand overheating” (headlines)
Barkin (Richmond) Mon 9 Nov AI buildout “particularly consequential”; could “overdeliver”
Bowman (Governor) Tue 10 Nov Core PCE ~3.3% on “energy prices, AI-related demand”; financial-stability risk “if AI returns fall short”
Waller (Governor) Tue 10 Nov 50bp “should be considered” if core ~0.3%
Logan (Dallas) Tue 10 Nov Two more hikes; PCE could move higher

 

The Fed is now describing the AI boom in two ways at once: as a source of demand that pushes inflation up, and as a source of financial risk if the returns disappoint. That combination is uncomfortable for markets: it argues for higher rates now, while warning that the thing driving demand could reverse. For equities, it means AI news and rate news are now linked; for the dollar, it means the Fed’s hawkishness has a reason that does not depend on oil.

  1. Oil: Talks, Not Barrels

OPEC+ raised output by 2.04 million barrels a day in October, and Brent rose. The market is trading statements from Tehran and Washington, not supply data. Rezaei’s refusal to remove “a single atom” of enriched material out of Iran addresses one of the central US demands, and was enough to add about $1.30. With no Gulf premium left, every hard-line statement adds a little back, and every conciliatory one takes it away. The EIA’s forecast of about $100 for November and December remains about $7 above the market.

  1. Framework Status
Framework Status Wednesday’s evidence
Gold: rates and dollar (probation) 🟩 Sixth session DXY +0.7%, gold −1%; Treasuries closed
Gold: inverse link with oil ⬜ Secondary Oil +1.4%, gold −1% (fits, but not the driver)
Oil: premium gauge (Brent–WTI) 🟥 Small premium back $5.45 → $6.23 on Rezaei
Oil: trades talks, not supply 🟩 Confirmed OPEC+ +2m bpd; Brent up
Fed: AI-demand argument 🟥 Broadening Bowman joins Goolsbee, Barkin
Dollar: rate-gap driven 🟩 Strong DXY highest since 14 Oct; EUR < 1.11
Equities: AI demand intact 🟩 Confirmed by CoreWeave CRWV +24.7%; chips up
Equities: Nvidia key-person risk 🟥 Now an event WSJ: board preparing to oust CEO

 

🌐 Global Macro Sentiment Summary

Theme Direction Evidence Read
Dollar 🟩 Strong DXY ~102.9 (+0.7%) Two-day CPI rally
Yen 🟥 Near 160 USD/JPY ~159.7–159.9 Intervention risk
Euro 🟥 17-month low EUR/USD < 1.11 Rate gap
Sterling 🟥 Weak GBP/USD ~1.327 UK GDP Thursday
Gold 🟥 Below $4,000 Spot ~$3,982–3,992 Dollar-driven
Oil 🟩 Rebound Brent $92.76 (+1.4%) Rezaei; no deal progress
US equities 🟩 Higher Nasdaq +1.6%; S&P +1.3% CoreWeave, chips
Nvidia 🟥 CEO crisis −8% after hours Board reportedly preparing to oust CEO
Fed 🟥 Hawkish Bowman: pressures “may persist” AI-demand theme
Treasuries ⬜ Closed — Reopen Thursday

 

Upcoming News

Thursday, November 12th, 2026 — Theme: “Treasuries Catch Up, Nvidia Decides” — US Treasuries reopen after Veterans Day and must price two days of dollar strength and the Fed’s hawkish comments. Nvidia’s board may already have met to decide its chief executive’s future by the Hanoi morning. In Europe, the UK publishes third-quarter GDP. In the US: jobless claims, existing home sales, and speeches by Hammack, Daly and Williams. USD/JPY sits just below 160.

🔴 Calendar — Thursday, November 12th, 2026

Times in ICT (Hanoi): ET plus 12, GMT plus 7, CET plus 6. Times marked  are standard release times not confirmed in the sources consulted.*

Time (ICT) Currency Event / Indicator Consensus Impact
Morning USD Nvidia board decision on CEO (reported as possible from Wednesday) — 🔴 Highest for equities
Asian session JPY USD/JPY near 160; watch for Japanese official comments — 🔴 High
14:00 GBP UK Q3 GDP (prelim); trade; industrial production +0.7% q/q; Q2 +0.5% 🔴 High
14:00 SEK Sweden final CPI (Oct) Prior 0.9% 🟡 Low
16:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin — 🟡 Low
Evening USD US Treasury market reopens — 🔴 High
20:30 USD Initial jobless claims Last 189k 🟠 Med
21:00 USD Fed’s Hammack Voted to hike in Oct 🟠 Med
22:00 USD Existing home sales (Oct) 3.87m; prior 3.99m 🟡 Low
~23:00* USD EIA weekly inventories (delayed by holiday) — 🟠 Med for oil
Fri 01:10 USD Fed’s Daly — 🟠 Med
Fri 06:30 USD Fed’s Williams — 🟠 Med

 

Times converted from MUFG’s GMT calendar. Friday: US PPI at 20:30 ICT; eurozone Q3 GDP at 17:00 ICT. Nvidia results: 16 or 17 November (sources differ). Anthropic IPO: trading possibly next week (Yahoo).*

  1. Treasuries Reopen

The 10-year ended Tuesday near 4.98–5.00% and the 2-year near 4.70%. Since then, the dollar has risen another 0.7% and Bowman has added to the hawkish tone. If Treasuries reprice to match the dollar, yields could open higher. But the dollar move partly reflected thin holiday liquidity; Treasuries could also confirm a smaller move. The reopening is the cleanest test of how much of Wednesday’s dollar rally was real.

Hammack, who voted to hike in October, speaks at 21:00 Hanoi time; Daly and Williams speak overnight. Williams is the New York Fed president and his tone on 50bp would carry weight.

  1. Nvidia’s Board

The WSJ reported the board could meet as soon as Wednesday to decide Huang’s future, and was considering an interim CEO before choosing a permanent successor. Three outcomes are possible: he stays, he steps aside temporarily, or he is replaced. Each has a different effect: a clear decision, even an unwelcome one, may reduce uncertainty, while a drawn-out process keeps it open into the results on 16–17 November. The pattern so far has been to sell Nvidia and buy competitors (AMD, Broadcom, Alphabet), with the wider AI trade holding up.

  1. UK GDP

Consensus is +0.7% q/q, up from 0.5%. The BoE raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.6% when it hiked last week. A strong print would support the market’s pricing of more BoE hikes and could steady sterling after its 1.4% two-day fall. A weak one would support Bailey’s line that the hike was not the start of an “inevitable long sequence.”

  1. FX, Gold and Oil
  1. Carry-Over Into Thursday
  1. Three Questions for Thursday

Do Treasuries confirm the dollar’s move when they reopen? That decides whether gold’s break below $4,000 holds.

Does USD/JPY test 160, and does Tokyo respond? That is the main FX risk for the session.

What does Nvidia’s board decide? That sets the tone for AI stocks into the results.

Snapshot

Wednesday, 11 November 2026 (Veterans Day; US bond market closed): the dollar rallied to a four-week high as USD/JPY neared 160 and EUR/USD broke 1.11; gold fell below $4,000; Brent rose 1.4% on Iran’s nuclear stance despite a 2m bpd jump in OPEC+ output; CoreWeave rose 25% and lifted the Nasdaq 1.6%; Nvidia rose 2.9%, then fell about 8% after hours on a report its board is preparing to replace its CEO.

📌 The Session in Ten Lines

  1. US Treasuries were closed for Veterans Day; the CPI reaction ran through the dollar.
  2. The dollar index rose about 0.6–0.7% to ~102.9, its highest since 14 October.
  3. EUR/USD fell below 1.11 for the first time since May 2025; GBP/USD fell to ~1.327.
  4. USD/JPY reached ~159.7–159.9, its highest since 2 September; MUFG and ING flagged intervention risk above 160.
  5. Spot gold fell about 1% to below $4,000 (~$3,982–3,992).
  6. Brent settled at $92.76 (+1.39%) and WTI at $86.53 (+0.57%); Rezaei said Iran would not remove “a single atom” of enriched material.
  7. OPEC+ output rose 2.04m bpd to 41.23m bpd in October; OPEC held its demand outlook.
  8. The Nasdaq rose 1.60%, the S&P 500 1.31% and the Dow 0.49%; CoreWeave rose 24.7%; Apple hit a record.
  9. Nvidia closed +2.92% at $173.73, then fell ~8% after hours on WSJ and NYT reports; Baird cut it to Neutral.
  10. Bowman (Tuesday evening): inflation pressures “may persist”; core PCE ~3.3% on energy and AI-related demand.

📊 Reference Levels

Instrument Level Change Note
DXY ~102.86–102.93 +0.6% to +0.7% Highest since 14 Oct
EUR/USD < 1.1100 ~−0.56% Lowest since May 2025
GBP/USD ~1.3274 > −0.5% —
USD/JPY ~159.7–159.9 ~+0.7% Highest since 2 Sep
AUD/USD ~0.69 Off multi-month low —
US 2-year / 10-year Closed — Tue: ~4.70% / ~4.98–5.00%
Spot gold ~$3,982–3,992 ~−1.0% to −1.3% Below $4,000
Gold (Dec), Tue settlement $4,030.20 — Reference
Silver (early) $52.52 +2.5% —
Brent (January) $92.76 +1.39% —
WTI (December) $86.53 +0.57% —
Brent–WTI spread $6.23 From $5.45 —
OPEC+ output (Oct) 41.23m bpd +2.04m bpd —
Nasdaq Composite 25,466.19 +1.60% 🟩
S&P 500 7,619.38 +1.31% 🟩
Dow Jones 52,486.49 +0.49% 🟩
Russell 2000 2,846.26 +0.88% 🟩
Nvidia $173.73; ~$156–160 AH +2.92%; ~−8% AH CEO reports
CoreWeave $60.77 +24.71% −7% AH
Apple > $355.42 ~+2% Record; $5.16tn
Nikkei 225 61,248.59 +1.31% Yahoo widget
Bitcoin ~$73,530 ~−1% —

 

🥇 Gold — Standing Section

Spot gold fell about 1–1.3% to around $3,982–3,992, below $4,000, after a small rebound in Asia; no December futures settlement was found (Tuesday: $4,030.20). With Treasuries closed, the dollar was the only rates-related signal, and it rose about 0.7%: gold fell as the rates-and-dollar channel predicts, the sixth session in a row it has fitted. Oil rose and gold fell, so the oil link fitted too, but it is now treated as secondary. Levels: support $3,950, then the 2026 low near $3,870; resistance $4,000, then $4,030. The key test is Thursday, when Treasuries reopen.

🛢️ Oil — Standing Section

Brent settled at $92.76 (+1.39%) and WTI at $86.53 (+0.57%), the first rise in four sessions. The driver was Rezaei’s statement that Iran will not remove “a single atom” of enriched nuclear material, rejecting a central US demand; Bloomberg noted hostilities were muted but talks showed no progress. OPEC+ raised October output by 2.04m bpd to 41.23m bpd, and Brent still rose: the market is trading talks, not barrels. The Brent–WTI spread widened to $6.23 from $5.45, so a small part of the Gulf premium returned. The EIA still expects about $100 for November and December. Watch the delayed EIA inventory report on Thursday.

🧭 Sentiment & Bias

Asset / Theme Bias Rationale
USD 🟩 Strong Hawkish Fed; rate gaps
JPY ⬜ Two-way at 160 Rate gap vs intervention risk
EUR 🟥 Weak 17-month low
GBP 🟥 Weak; GDP Thursday Hike priced
Gold 🟥 Pressured Dollar-driven; below $4,000
Brent ⬜ Talk-driven Iran statements; surplus
AI ex-Nvidia 🟩 Supported CoreWeave; demand intact
Nvidia 🟥 Event risk Board decision; results 16–17 Nov
US rates 🟥 Upward pressure on reopening Two days of dollar strength

 

🎯 Top Trade Takeaway

The most useful observation from Wednesday is how much the dollar moved without Treasuries. The dollar index rose about 0.7% on a day with no US bond trading, taking EUR/USD to a 17-month low and USD/JPY to within about 0.2 yen of 160. For FX desks, that makes Thursday’s Treasury reopening the key event: if yields confirm, the dollar move stands; if they do not, part of it may reverse in thin conditions.

For yen exposures, 160 is now the practical line. MUFG and ING both see intervention risk rising sharply above it and both expect the yen to strengthen over the medium term. This publication takes no view on whether Tokyo will act, but the setup matches the period before the July intervention.

📚 Full Source Citations

Source Used for Note
TheStreet — Stock Market Today, 11 November Closes, Russell, Apple record, midday movers, CoreWeave, Nvidia downgrade, early commodities —
Yahoo Finance — Live blog and market wrap; Nvidia after-hours article Index closes, CoreWeave and Nvidia closes and after-hours, Baird, Subramanian, Bowman headline, Anthropic IPO range, year-to-date, overseas widgets 🟥 Some widgets undated
CNBC; CNN (via KEYT); BNO News; BigGo; Bloomingbit; SBS Nvidia after-hours reports, timings, value, interim-CEO report Report WSJ and NYT; unconfirmed by Nvidia
Trading Economics; ChainCatcher; IC Markets; MQL5; RoboForex; FXEmpire DXY, EUR, GBP levels and context; Tuesday close; IC Markets view Levels at different times
FXStreet; Kitco; Exchange Rates UK USD/JPY level and range break; MUFG and ING quotes; Katayama context; Bowman remarks —
Kitco; Trading Economics; Forbes; Mitrade; Investorideas Spot gold levels and path; 2026 low No futures settlement found
SBS; Bloomberg; EnergyNow; World Oil Monitor Brent and WTI settlements, Rezaei, shipping attacks —
Invezz (OPEC report article) OPEC+ output, demand outlook, timing, EIA reference 🟥 Page did not load; search summary used
Bloomberg Law; Mortgage Professional America Bowman’s May stance Context
MUFG — FX Weekly Calendar times —

 

Reports belong to The Concept Trading and Van Hung Nguyen

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