Market Snapshot November 11th 2026

Hot CPI (0.4%, Core 0.3%) Put a 50bp Fed Hike on the Table, the 2-Year Jumped About 14bp and the 10-Year Reached 5%, Gold Fell 2% to $4,030, Brent Briefly Broke Below $90, and Nvidia Fell Another 5.5%

Data

Theme: “From Whether to How Much” — US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against 0.3% expected, and core prices rose 0.3% against 0.2%, the third straight 0.3% month. Before the release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in London that a 50bp hike “should be considered” in December if core came in around 0.3%; after it, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she sees a need for two more quarter-point hikes. A 25bp December hike is now fully or almost fully priced, and the odds of 50bp rose from zero to about 10–15%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose about 13–15bp to above 4.7%, its biggest one-day rise since April 2025 (Xinhua), and the 10-year reached about 4.98–5.00%.

The dollar index rose about 0.7% to near 102.35, and USD/JPY touched 158.80. Gold fell about 2% to settle at $4,030.20, its clearest move yet on the rates channel. Brent briefly fell below $90 for the first time since 31 August (low $89.16) and settled 1.17% lower at $91.49. Stocks fell modestly: the S&P 500 −0.38%, the Nasdaq −0.74%, with Nvidia down another 5.47%. After the close, CoreWeave beat estimates and raised its 2026 revenue guidance.

Tuesday, 10 November 2026 was a full trading session. Parts I, II, III and V cover Tuesday; Part IV looks to Wednesday, 11 November, Veterans Day in the US, when the bond market is closed and equities are open.

📌 Corrections and Clarifications

  1. Monday’s gold gain was about 1%, not 1.8%. Monday’s edition gave December gold at about $4,148.70–4,149.50, up 1.81–1.83%, and found no settlement. Tuesday’s reports show Monday’s December settlement was $4,114.50 (Invezz), up $39.60 or about 0.97% from Friday’s $4,074.90. The higher prices were traded after the settlement. Monday’s edition also explained Yahoo’s quote box ($4,153.70, +$39.20) as a different contract month. That explanation was wrong: the quote box was measuring post-settlement trade against Monday’s own settlement ($4,114.50 + $39.20 = $4,153.70). The same timing effect probably explains the conflicting Yahoo gold figures on Thursday 5 November. From this edition, gold is reported on settlement where one is found, and post-settlement quotes are labelled.
  2. The EIA did not cut its oil forecast. Monday’s Part IV said a large EIA downgrade “would confirm the surplus view.” The EIA instead raised its 2026 Brent average forecast to $97.44 from $96.32 and expects Brent near $100 at year-end, with $85.78 in 2027 (TASS, citing the EIA). The EIA’s view and the market ($91.49) now differ by close to $10 for the end of the year. See section 3.
  3. The dollar’s Monday move: about −0.4%. Monday’s edition gave about −0.5% from a point-in-time snapshot. Trading Economics gives a fall of nearly 0.4% to 101.8, after Friday’s 0.7% rise, the largest daily gain in nearly six months.

🔥 1. October CPI

Measure (seasonally adjusted, m/m) October Expected / September Read
Headline CPI +0.4% +0.3% exp; +0.6% Sep 🟥 Hot
Core CPI +0.3% +0.2% exp; +0.3% Sep 🟥 Third 0.3% in a row
Energy +0.7% +5.2% Sep Slowing
Gasoline +1.0% — Karmactive
Electricity +0.9% — Karmactive
Food +0.5% — 🟥 Biggest since April (Karmactive)
Shelter / housing +0.3% +0.4% Sep (shelter) Steady
Core contributors Recreation, medical care, car insurance, airline fares — Axios
Annual rate Not published — BLS: missing October 2025 data

 

From Yahoo, CNBC, Axios, Karmactive and Xinhua, citing the BLS. Unadjusted all-items CPI rose 0.2% to 337.511 (Karmactive).

Estimate of the annual rate Source
Headline about 4.0%; core about 2.8% Interpolating the missing October 2025 month (Axios; economist Riccardo Trezzi, via Karmactive)
Core about 3.6–3.7% annualised over three months Xinhua (~3.6%); Karmactive (3.7%)
Cleveland Fed nowcast before the data: headline 3.7%, core 2.5% Trading Economics
Core at 0.3% or more in 5 of 2026’s first 10 months StockTitan, citing the BLS

 

This is the report the Fed’s hawks were waiting for. Core has run at 0.3% for three months, an annualised pace near 3.6–3.7%, and the breadth is wide: food, medical care, car insurance, airfares and recreation all contributed. Schwab’s Kevin Gordon: “CPI for October is not great… Inflation breadth still looking poor across goods and services.” Energy, the driver of the last two months, slowed to +0.7%; the inflation is now coming from elsewhere. That supports Goolsbee’s and Barkin’s argument on Monday that the risk is demand, not energy.

🏛️ 2. The Fed: 25bp Priced, 50bp Debated

Speaker What was said
Governor Christopher Waller (London, before CPI) “Inflation is too high”; “I am leaning toward supporting an increase in our policy rate of 25 basis points at the FOMC’s December meeting.” A 50bp hike “should be considered” if core came in around 0.3%. “Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take” (Yahoo, StockTitan, CNBC)
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (after CPI) Sees a need for two additional quarter-point increases; called the report “higher than expected”; worried the Fed’s preferred PCE measure could also move higher later in November (CNBC). The Private Banker headline adds that she sees room to move faster this winter
Fed’s Paulson Scheduled late Tuesday (MUFG calendar); remarks not found

 

December pricing Before CPI After CPI Source
25bp hike Over 80% 84% to fully priced Yahoo; CME via Reuters
50bp hike 0% 10.5% to 15% Reuters (CME); Yahoo

 

The debate has moved from whether the Fed hikes in December to how much. Waller is a governor, not a regional president, and he is the first Fed official this publication has recorded saying a 50bp move should be considered. His phrase about credibility matters: it frames a 25bp hike as possibly too little. Natixis’ Christopher Hodge called three 0.3% core readings “an unacceptable pace for the Fed,” adding that “50bps is squarely on the table.” Regan Capital’s Skyler Weinand: “the Federal Reserve can’t ignore the obvious uptick in the inflation data.”

The next inputs are PPI on Friday and PCE later in November, which Logan flagged. The Fed decides on 8–9 December. With the funds rate at 3.75–4.00%, a 50bp move would take it to 4.25–4.50%.

💱 3. Rates and FX

Instrument Tuesday Change Note
US 2-year ~4.69–4.70%+ +13 to +15bp 🟥 Biggest daily rise since April 2025 (Xinhua)
US 5-year 4.75% +10bp Yahoo, 8:58am ET
US 10-year 4.98–5.00% +12bp 🟥 JournalArta 4.983%; FXStreet “reclaims 5.00%”
US 30-year 5.29% +3bp Yahoo, morning
DXY 102.33–102.38 +0.67% to +0.70% Trading Economics; FXStreet
USD/JPY 158.70–158.80 +0.5% High 158.80; low 157.87
EUR/USD ~1.116 Lower Derived from EUR/JPY 177.13–177.26
GBP/USD ~1.335 Lower Derived from GBP/JPY 211.83
AUD/USD ~0.687 Lower Derived from AUD/JPY 108.98
USD/CAD ~1.419 Higher Derived from CAD/JPY 111.85

 

USD/JPY from Investing.com and Trading Economics. EUR, GBP, AUD and CAD levels are this publication’s calculation from Trading Economics’ yen crosses at the close, divided by USD/JPY; they are approximate. No direct closing quotes for those pairs were found.

The curve bear-flattened hard: the 2-year rose about 14bp and the 30-year only about 3bp. That is the shape of a market pricing more and faster Fed hikes, not a market worried about long-run inflation. The 10-year at about 5% is back near its levels before the five-week rally that ended last week.

USD/JPY rose to the top of last week’s range (158.80), as Monday’s scenario table expected for a hot core. The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions was hawkish and Japanese wage data last week were strong, but a fall in household spending and the wider US–Japan rate gap outweighed them (FXStreet). Forexuro notes speculators are heavily net long yen futures (about 102,000 contracts), which could limit a further rally in USD/JPY; Forex.com points to 159.00 as the neckline of a bullish pattern, with the 160 area seen as intervention territory. These are their technical views, not this publication’s.

🥇 4. Gold — The Rates Channel Passes the CPI Test

Instrument Level Change Source
Gold futures (December), settlement $4,030.20 −2.05% (−$84.30) Reuters via Rallies; Cappnotes
Gold futures, alternative settlement figure $4,039.20 −1.82% Invezz
Gold, Monday settlement (corrected) $4,114.50 +0.97% Invezz
Spot gold $4,021–4,028 −2.7% to −2.8% Reuters; Invezz
Silver (spot) ~$51.7–51.9 About −2.9% to −3.0% Private Banker; Discovery Alert
Copper $6.2345/lb −1.73% Cappnotes

 

Gold fell about 2% as the 2-year rose 14bp and the dollar 0.7%, with oil down only 1.2%. This was the test this publication set on Monday for the rates-and-dollar channel, which it restored on probation last week: a hot CPI with yields up should push gold down. It did. That is now four sessions in a row (Wednesday 4, Thursday 5, Friday 6, Tuesday 10 November, with Monday consistent on the dollar side) in which gold moved as the channel predicts.

Marex’s Edward Meir: “a bit of a short-term negative for gold.” Standard Chartered: gold “continues to trade above the critical $4,000/oz mark,” with “crude oil, inflation risks and equity markets” setting the tone. Discovery Alert reports that Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold forecast to $4,150 from $4,650, and that CPM Group sees support at $3,800; the spot 2026 low was $3,869.85 on 30 October. Levels: support $4,000, then $3,950; resistance $4,075 (Friday’s settlement), then $4,115 (Monday’s settlement).

🛢️ 5. Oil — Below $90, Briefly

Contract Settlement Change Note
Brent (January) $91.49 −$1.08 (−1.17%) Low $89.16; first below $90 since 31 Aug
WTI (December) $86.04 −$0.81 (−0.93%) Low about $83.88 (Rio Times board)
Brent–WTI spread $5.45 From $5.72 🟩 Narrowest yet
US gasoline (AAA) Below $4/gal First time since July StockTitan; Flynn: $4.0093 Monday
US diesel (retail) $6.1572 From $6.2875 a week ago PRICE Futures Group
US natural gas $3.296 +2.42% Cappnotes

 

Settlements from CNBC; Cappnotes gives the same. Rio Times’ board and Invezz’s digest give slightly different late quotes.

Brent fell to about $91 in Asia and below $90 around 5am ET, then recovered to $91.49. Two things pulled it back: Mohsen Rezaei, second-in-command of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said there were no ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington (Invezz), and Eurasia Group’s Gregory Brew said Brent was unlikely to fall below $90 without “more lasting signs of de-escalation” (Emranews). Brent is now about 22–23% below its 30 October six-month high of about $118 (December contract).

Supply signal Detail
OPEC output Rose in October, led by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, despite export limits (Reuters survey, via Cornerstone)
Physical market Dated Brent weaker; Morgan Stanley: Dated at a discount to futures; JPMorgan: 1.4m bpd October surplus
Hormuz OilPrice headlines: LNG traffic through Hormuz at its highest since the war began; the US military is coordinating with Saudi tankers on Hormuz crossings
Russia–Ukraine First peace talks since February held in Abu Dhabi (Invezz; OilPrice)
EIA STEO 2026 Brent average raised to $97.44; ~$100 at year-end; $85.78 in 2027 (TASS)

 

The EIA and the market now disagree by about $10 for the end of the year. The EIA’s outlook cites falling global inventories, tanker attacks and higher transport costs. The market is pricing the surplus that JPMorgan and the physical market describe, and two peace tracks at once (Iran and Ukraine). ING’s Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson: “With regional negotiations still uncertain and infrastructure risks persisting, we expect oil prices to remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East.”

The Brent–WTI spread, this publication’s gauge of the Gulf premium, narrowed again to $5.45. On that measure there is no Gulf premium left. Every escalation risk now has to be added back from zero.

📈 6. The Session

Index Close Change Note
S&P 500 7,520.93 −29.01 (−0.38%) 🟥 First fall in three sessions
Nasdaq Composite 25,065.88 −187.26 (−0.74%) 🟥 9.2% below its 27,599.79 high
Dow Jones 52,231.89 −157.86 (−0.30%) 🟥
Russell 2000 2,821.38 −19.44 (−0.68%) 🟥
VIX 19.46–19.63 About −1.5% to −2.3% Below 20

 

Closes from Yahoo, CNBC, GV Wire (Reuters) and JournalArta. Business Upturn and 24/7 Wall St published pre-close figures that differ.

The fall was modest given the size of the rates move. Decliners beat advancers by about 2.3 to 1 on both exchanges (Reuters), and technology, materials and industrials led the losses; energy and financials held up best. The S&P 500 was down nearly 1% at midday before buyers trimmed the loss. Yahoo noted that “the typical S&P 500 stock is barely down”; Nvidia accounted for much of the index damage.

The VIX stayed below 20 despite a 14bp rise in the 2-year. That suggests investors expected a hawkish Fed and that the equity market is, for now, more focused on AI news than on rates. Overseas closes for Tuesday were not found.

Companies

Theme: “Nvidia Oversold, CoreWeave Delivers” — Nvidia fell another 5.47%, briefly dropping below $4 trillion in value, as the board investigation of its chief executive widened into questions about Chinese access to its hardware. After the close, CoreWeave, down about 40% in a month, beat estimates and raised its 2026 revenue guidance. Hims & Hers fell 16.5% on a margin squeeze, and crypto-linked stocks fell as Bitcoin briefly dropped below $73,000.

🟥 1. Nvidia — Second Day Down

Item Detail
Close $168.89, −5.47%; −4.27% on Monday; market value briefly below $4 trillion (CNBC via StockTitan)
Governance Independent board members hired a law firm for the investigation; chief executive Jensen Huang’s weekend email to staff remained in focus (StockTitan)
New report Yahoo cites a report that at least $7.5 billion of Nvidia hardware reached Chinese companies through a network linked to the executive at the centre of the investigation. Nvidia’s response to this report was not found
Technical RSI fell to 23, its most oversold reading since June 2019; “hasn’t been sold this hard, this fast since 2019” (Yahoo)
Analyst view Goldman Sachs’ James Schneider: chip stocks are “clearly in oversold territory”; Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD are his top buys
Next Results on 17 November, after the US close

 

This publication reports the allegations as attributed, does not name the other individual, and treats the hardware report as unverified.

The story has moved from a governance question to a possible export-control question. If hardware reached Chinese buyers through an unauthorised network, the issue becomes regulatory and political, not only personal. That is why the stock kept falling on a day when most chip stocks were mixed. The 17 November results will show demand; the investigation will decide the rest.

☁️ 2. CoreWeave — Beat and Raise After a 40% Fall

Measure (Q3 2026) Actual Estimate Read
Revenue $3.66bn (+168% y/y) $3.54–3.55bn 🟩
Loss per share (GAAP) $1.27 $1.55 🟩 Smaller
Adjusted loss per share $0.95 $1.16 🟩 Benzinga
Adjusted operating income $379m $200–260m guided 🟩
2026 revenue guidance $13.0–13.3bn $12.86bn (LSEG) 🟩 Raised from $12.4–13.2bn
Year-end revenue run-rate $20–21bn — —
Revenue backlog $132.5bn $104bn in June 🟩
2026 capex $37–39bn $35–39bn prior Range narrowed upward
Active power More than 1.7 GW >1.85 GW at year-end expected —
Customer prepayments ~$9bn expected in three months — Funding support

 

From CNBC, Benzinga, Rolling Out, GuruFocus and the earnings call transcript. TheStreet’s live blog noted weighted average debt cost down 250bp year on year.

The shares closed at $48.73 (−0.5%) and rose about 2–7% after hours by source, a modest move against options pricing of about a 15–16% swing. The stock had lost about 40–42% in the month before the report. CNBC’s summary: the results show “demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure remains strong despite concerns of a market slowdown.”

CoreWeave is the most leveraged name in the AI buildout, and its bonds traded at 74.75 cents on 5 November. A beat, a raise, a growing backlog and lower funding costs are the best answer it could give to last week’s credit worries. What remains is the funding gap: $37–39 billion of capex this year against $13 billion of revenue, financed mostly through loans matched to customer contracts. The bond price on Wednesday will be a better test than the share price.

💊 3. Other Movers

Company Move Driver
PepGen 🟩 +92.89% Phase 2 data in a rare muscle disease
ZipRecruiter 🟩 +53.38% Q3 revenue $124.4m, above its own range
Ameresco 🟩 +23.21% Record $7.2bn backlog
Securitize 🟩 +22.88% River One deal; $50m buyback
AAON 🟩 +19.31% Record Q3; raised 2026 outlook (restated first half)
UnitedHealth 🟩 +1.89% Best Dow stock
Amazon 🟩 +1.48% Investing.com
Hims & Hers 🟥 −16.52% Revenue +49% to $890.4m; gross margin 57% from 74%; 2026 EBITDA guide cut to $257–277m
Digital Turbine 🟥 −35.84% Despite raising revenue forecast
Groupon 🟥 −23.08% Q3 revenue +2%
Caterpillar 🟥 −2.39% Worst Dow stock
Coinbase, Strategy, Robinhood 🟥 About −3% to −4% Bitcoin below $73,000 intraday

 

From StockTitan, Yahoo and Investing.com.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $73,000, under its 200-day average of about $73,200 (Yahoo). Bitget’s Lewis Huang said the break “could increase the risk of a deeper pullback.” The Private Banker reports a seventh straight day of outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Crypto has now fallen with equities on the AI sell-off and again on rates.

🏦 4. AI Capital Markets

 

General

Theme: “Inflation Without Oil” — October’s CPI showed core inflation running near 3.6–3.7% annualised while energy inflation slowed. On the same day, Brent fell below $90. The two facts together are the story: the oil shock is fading, but the inflation it started has spread into services, food and insurance. That moves the Fed’s debate from energy to core, puts a 50bp hike on the table, and makes rates, not oil, the main driver for the dollar and gold.

  1. Energy Down, Core Sticky
Measure September October Direction
Brent (month average, approx.) Rising to ~$118 by 30 Oct $91.49 on 10 Nov 🟩 Falling
CPI energy (m/m) +5.2% +0.7% 🟩 Slowing
Headline CPI (m/m) +0.6% +0.4% 🟩 Slowing, still hot
Core CPI (m/m) +0.3% +0.3% 🟥 Stuck
Food (m/m) — +0.5% 🟥 Rising
China PPI (y/y) +5.0% +5.7% 🟥 Rising (Monday)

 

This is the pattern the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England feared when they hiked: the energy shock fades, but inflation it started stays in the system. The RBNZ and the minority at the RBA bet the other way, that it would fade with oil. October’s US data support the hawks. Core inflation is the third straight 0.3%, food prices are rising faster, and China’s factory-gate prices are still climbing, which could feed through to imported goods.

What the lower oil price will do is pull November’s headline down. Gasoline is now below $4 a gallon for the first time since July, and diesel is falling. But the Fed has said it is watching core, and core does not respond quickly to oil. That is why yields rose on Tuesday even as Brent fell.

  1. The Fed’s December Choice
Option Case for Case against
Hold Oil down ~22% from its peak; equities fragile; unit labour costs fell 0.7% in Q3 Three 0.3% core prints; strong payrolls; two dissents for a hike in October
25bp to 4.00–4.25% Waller’s stated lean; fully priced; Logan wants two more Waller: 25bp alone “would put our credibility at risk” if data are hot
50bp to 4.25–4.50% Core 3.6–3.7% annualised; Waller says it “should be considered”; Natixis: “squarely on the table” Priced at only 10–15%; equities and credit (CoreWeave bonds) fragile; oil falling

 

A hold now looks unlikely; the question is 25bp or 50bp. Two data points remain before the decision: PPI on Friday and PCE later in November. If PCE confirms core at 0.3% or higher, the 50bp case gets stronger. A 50bp move priced at only 10–15% is the biggest event risk for rates and the dollar into December.

For FX, this keeps the dollar supported against currencies whose central banks are on hold or signalling pauses (AUD after the RBA, NZD, JPY). It matters less against GBP and CAD, where the central banks have also hiked. The yen is the most exposed, because the rate gap is the widest and USD/JPY is close to levels Tokyo has defended before.

  1. The Oil Market’s Two Peace Tracks

Tuesday added a second source of downside for oil: the first Russia–Ukraine peace talks since February, in Abu Dhabi. A Ukraine deal would ease concerns over Russian refinery attacks and diesel supply, which have kept diesel prices high. The market is now pricing a possible end to both conflicts at once, plus a surplus that JPMorgan puts at 1.4m bpd.

View Brent at year-end Reasoning
Market (futures) ~$91.5 Surplus; de-escalation in Iran; Ukraine talks
EIA (STEO) ~$100 Falling inventories, tanker attacks, transport costs
Eurasia (escalation case) $110–125 If strikes resume
Eurasia’s Brew Unlikely below $90 without lasting de-escalation Brent touched $89.16, then recovered

 

The gap between the EIA and the market is large for a forecast made only weeks before year-end. It reflects how fast prices have fallen: the EIA’s inputs were set when Brent was much higher. This publication does not treat the EIA as a better forecast than the market, but the gap shows how much risk the market has removed in two weeks.

  1. Framework Status
Framework Status Tuesday’s evidence
Gold: rates and dollar (probation) 🟩 Passed the CPI test 2-year +14bp, DXY +0.7%, gold −2%; oil only −1.2%
Gold: inverse link with oil 🟥 Failed Both fell
Oil–yields link 🟥 Still broken Oil −1.2%, 10-year +12bp
Oil: premium gauge (Brent–WTI) 🟩 Premium gone $5.45, narrowest recorded
Fed: the argument for hikes 🟥 Moved to core Energy +0.7%, core +0.3%; Waller on 50bp
Central banks split on energy 🟥 Hawks vindicated (for now) Inflation spread beyond energy
Equities: positioning flush ⬜ Holding VIX below 20 despite rates jump
AI finance 🟩 Improving CoreWeave beat and raise; funding costs down

 

Gold’s rates channel has now passed the test this publication set for it. It stays on probation, but it has been the right explanation for five sessions in a row, and the oil link has failed on two of the last four. From this edition, the Gold section leads with rates and the dollar, and treats oil as secondary.

🌐 Global Macro Sentiment Summary

Theme Direction Evidence Read
US inflation 🟥 Hot CPI +0.4%; core +0.3% (third time) Breadth wide
Fed 🟥 Hawkish Waller: 50bp “should be considered”; Logan: two more 25bp priced; 50bp 10–15%
US 2-year 🟥 Sharply higher ~4.70% (+14bp) Biggest since Apr 2025
US 10-year 🟥 Higher ~4.98–5.00% Back near pre-rally level
Dollar 🟩 Stronger DXY ~102.35 (+0.7%) Rate gap
Yen 🟥 Weaker USD/JPY 158.80 high Near 159 neckline
Gold 🟥 Lower $4,030.20 (−2.05%) Rates channel
Oil 🟥 Lower Brent $91.49; low $89.16 Two peace tracks
US equities 🟥 Slightly lower S&P −0.38%; Nasdaq −0.74% Nvidia-led
Crypto 🟥 Lower Bitcoin below $73,000 intraday ETF outflows
AI infrastructure 🟩 CoreWeave beat Guidance raised; backlog $132.5bn After hours

 

Upcoming News

Wednesday, November 11th, 2026 — Theme: “A Quiet Holiday After a Loud CPI” — Wednesday is Veterans Day in the US: the bond market is closed and federal data are not released, but equities trade. With no Treasury trading, FX and gold will carry the reaction to Tuesday’s CPI and to CoreWeave’s after-hours results. Europe has German final CPI and Italian industrial production; OPEC publishes its monthly oil report; China’s Singles Day shopping festival gives a read on consumers.

🔴 Calendar — Wednesday, November 11th, 2026

Times in ICT (Hanoi): ET plus 12, GMT plus 7, CET plus 6. Times marked  are standard release times not confirmed in the sources consulted.*

Time (ICT) Currency Event / Indicator Consensus Impact
Early morning USD CoreWeave, D-Wave, Rigetti results carry over — 🟠 Med for AI
06:30 USD Fed’s Paulson speaks (Tue evening ET) — 🟠 Med
All day USD US bond market closed (Veterans Day); stocks open* — 🟠 Thin rates liquidity
All day CNY Singles Day shopping festival — 🟡 Low
14:00 EUR German final CPI (Oct) Prior 2.8% y/y 🟡 Low
16:00 EUR Italian industrial production (Sep) Prior −1.3% m/m 🟡 Low
During day* — OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report — 🟠 Med for oil
Thu early morning* USD EIA weekly inventories (may be delayed by the holiday) — 🟠 Med

 

European times from MUFG’s weekly calendar (07:00 and 09:00 GMT). OPEC report timing and EIA scheduling were not confirmed.

📅 Rest of the Week

Day (ICT) Currency Event Consensus / note
Thu 12, 14:00 GBP UK Q3 GDP (prelim); trade +0.7% q/q exp; Q2 +0.5%
Thu 12, 14:00 SEK Sweden final CPI Prior 0.9%
Thu 12, 16:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin —
Thu 12, 20:30 USD Jobless claims Last 189k
Thu 12, 21:00 USD Fed’s Hammack Voted for a hike in October
Thu 12, 22:00 USD Existing home sales (Oct) 3.87m exp; 3.99m prior
Fri 13, 01:10 USD Fed’s Daly —
Fri 13, 06:30 USD Fed’s Williams —
Fri 13, 17:00* EUR Eurozone Q3 GDP +0.4% expected
Fri 13, 20:30 USD PPI (Oct) 🔴 Next inflation test
Mon 16, 06:50* JPY Japan Q3 GDP —
Tue 17, after US close USD Nvidia results Wed 18 morning in Hanoi
Week of 16 Nov (reported) USD Possible Anthropic IPO pricing Unconfirmed

 

Times converted from MUFG’s GMT calendar. Next central-bank decisions: Fed 8–9 December; BoE 17 December.

  1. A Day Without Treasuries

With the US bond market closed, Tuesday’s 14bp rise in the 2-year cannot be extended or reversed in cash Treasuries until Thursday. Futures and FX will carry the move. Thin liquidity can exaggerate moves in USD/JPY, which closed at 158.80, the top of last week’s range and near the 159.00 level technical analysts are watching.

Fed’s Paulson speaks late Tuesday ET (06:30 Hanoi). Any comment on 50bp would be the next signal after Waller and Logan. Hammack, who voted for a hike in October, speaks on Thursday.

  1. Oil: The OPEC Report and the Peace Tracks

OPEC’s monthly report is the first from the producer group since Brent fell from about $118 to $91. A Reuters survey shows OPEC output rose in October. Watch whether OPEC changes its demand forecast and how it describes the surplus that JPMorgan estimates at 1.4m bpd.

Two diplomatic tracks are running: Iran (Rezaei says there are no negotiations; Trump says “status quo”) and Ukraine (Abu Dhabi talks). Any statement from either can move Brent several dollars. The Brent–WTI spread ($5.45) remains the gauge for any return of the Gulf premium.

  1. Gold

Gold settled at $4,030.20, just above the $4,000 level Standard Chartered calls critical. Support $4,000, then $3,950; resistance $4,075, then $4,115. With Treasuries closed, the dollar is the main driver on Wednesday. A break below $4,000 would put the 30 October spot low ($3,869.85) back in view; CPM Group sees support at $3,800.

  1. FX
  1. Carry-Over Into Wednesday
  1. Three Questions for Wednesday

Does USD/JPY break 159.00 in thin holiday trade? That is the level technical traders and, possibly, Tokyo are watching.

Does CoreWeave’s beat lift AI infrastructure stocks and its bonds? That tests whether last week’s credit worries are easing.

Does OPEC acknowledge a surplus? That would support the market’s view over the EIA’s.

Snapshot

Tuesday, 10 November 2026: October CPI came in hot (0.4%, core 0.3% for a third month); Waller said a 50bp December hike should be considered and Logan wants two more hikes; the 2-year jumped about 14bp and the 10-year reached about 5%; the dollar rose 0.7%; gold fell 2% to $4,030.20; Brent briefly broke $90 and settled at $91.49; Nvidia fell another 5.5%; CoreWeave beat and raised after the close.

📌 The Session in Ten Lines

  1. CPI rose 0.4% (exp 0.3%); core rose 0.3% (exp 0.2%), its third straight 0.3%; no annual rate was published.
  2. Energy slowed to +0.7% from +5.2%; food rose 0.5%; core was driven by recreation, medical care, car insurance and airfares.
  3. Waller: a 50bp hike “should be considered”; 25bp alone “would put our credibility at risk.” Logan: two more hikes needed.
  4. A 25bp December hike is fully or almost fully priced; 50bp odds rose to 10–15% from zero.
  5. The 2-year rose about 14bp to ~4.70%, its biggest daily rise since April 2025; the 10-year reached ~4.98–5.00%.
  6. The dollar index rose ~0.7% to ~102.35; USD/JPY hit 158.80.
  7. Gold settled at $4,030.20 (−2.05%); Monday’s settlement is corrected to $4,114.50 (+0.97%).
  8. Brent fell to $89.16, its first trade below $90 since 31 August, and settled at $91.49 (−1.17%); WTI $86.04.
  9. The S&P 500 fell 0.38% and the Nasdaq 0.74%; Nvidia fell 5.47% to $168.89, its most oversold since 2019.
  10. CoreWeave reported revenue of $3.66bn (+168%), raised 2026 guidance to $13.0–13.3bn, and rose after hours.

📊 Reference Levels

Instrument Level Change Note
US CPI (Oct, m/m) +0.4% +0.3% exp 🟥
US core CPI (Oct, m/m) +0.3% +0.2% exp 🟥
US 2-year ~4.70% +13 to +15bp Biggest since Apr 2025
US 5-year ~4.75% +10bp Morning
US 10-year ~4.98–5.00% +12bp —
US 30-year ~5.29% +3bp Morning
Fed Dec: 25bp / 50bp 84–100% / 10–15% From >80% / 0% By source
DXY ~102.35 +0.7% —
USD/JPY 158.70–158.80 +0.5% Range top
EUR/USD (derived) ~1.116 Lower —
GBP/USD (derived) ~1.335 Lower —
AUD/USD (derived) ~0.687 Lower —
USD/CAD (derived) ~1.419 Higher —
Gold (December) $4,030.20 −2.05% Settlement
Spot gold ~$4,021–4,028 −2.7% to −2.8% —
Silver (spot) ~$51.7–51.9 About −3% —
Copper $6.2345/lb −1.73% —
Brent (January) $91.49 −1.17% Low $89.16
WTI (December) $86.04 −0.93% —
Brent–WTI spread $5.45 From $5.72 Narrowest
S&P 500 7,520.93 −0.38% 🟥
Nasdaq Composite 25,065.88 −0.74% 🟥
Dow Jones 52,231.89 −0.30% 🟥
Russell 2000 2,821.38 −0.68% 🟥
VIX 19.46–19.63 About −2% —
Nvidia $168.89 −5.47% RSI 23
Bitcoin Below $73,000 intraday Lower Below 200-day

 

🥇 Gold — Standing Section

Gold settled at $4,030.20, down $84.30 (2.05%) from Monday’s corrected settlement of $4,114.50; spot fell 2.7–2.8% to about $4,021–4,028. The driver was rates and the dollar: the 2-year rose about 14bp and the dollar index 0.7% on a hot CPI, while oil fell only 1.2%. This was the test this publication set for the rates-and-dollar channel, and it passed; the channel has now fitted five sessions in a row, while the inverse link with oil failed again (both fell). The Gold section now leads with rates and the dollar. Goldman Sachs reportedly cut its year-end forecast to $4,150 from $4,650. Levels: support $4,000, $3,950; resistance $4,075, $4,115. With Treasuries closed on Wednesday, the dollar will lead; PPI on Friday is the next rates test.

🛢️ Oil — Standing Section

Brent touched $89.16, its first trade below $90 since 31 August, and settled at $91.49 (−1.17%); WTI settled at $86.04 (−0.93%). Rezaei’s statement that there are no ongoing US–Iran negotiations pulled prices back from the lows. OPEC output rose in October, Dated Brent is at a discount to futures, LNG traffic through Hormuz is at a wartime high, and Russia–Ukraine talks resumed in Abu Dhabi. The Brent–WTI spread is $5.45, the narrowest recorded: no Gulf premium is left. The EIA, by contrast, raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $97.44 and expects about $100 at year-end; the gap with the market is close to $10. Gasoline fell below $4 a gallon for the first time since July. Watch OPEC’s monthly report on Wednesday.

🧭 Sentiment & Bias

Asset / Theme Bias Rationale
US front-end rates 🟥 Upward pressure Core sticky; 50bp debate; PPI and PCE ahead
USD 🟩 Supported Widening rate gaps
JPY 🟥 Weak, intervention risk 158.80; 159 neckline; 160 area
AUD, NZD 🟥 Soft Dovish central banks vs hawkish Fed
GBP, CAD ⬜ Mixed Own hikes vs dollar strength; CAD hurt by oil
Gold 🟥 Rate-pressured Rates channel leading; $4,000 key
Brent ⬜ Heavy, headline-driven No premium; EIA disagrees
US equities ⬜ Resilient so far VIX below 20 despite rates
AI infrastructure 🟩 Supported by CoreWeave Beat, raise, backlog
Nvidia 🟥 Event risk Investigation; results 17 Nov

 

🎯 Top Trade Takeaway

The most useful observation from Tuesday is that US inflation no longer needs oil. Energy rose only 0.7% in October, and Brent is now below $92, yet core prices rose 0.3% for the third month and the Fed is debating a 50bp hike. For FX desks, that means falling oil is no longer a reason to expect lower US yields or a weaker dollar; the dollar now trades on core inflation and the Fed. USD/JPY at 158.80 in a holiday-thinned market is the pair to watch on Wednesday.

For gold, the lesson is the same from the other side: gold is trading on US rates. The next tests are PPI on Friday and PCE later in November, and a 50bp hike, priced at only 10–15%, is the largest event risk.

📚 Full Source Citations

Source Used for Note
Yahoo Finance — CPI article; live blog; market wrap, 10 November CPI details, Gordon, Weinand, Waller quotes, Fed odds, yields, gold, Nvidia, Goldman’s Schneider, Hims, crypto, closes 🟥 Header quotes differ from text
CNBC — CPI report; oil; CoreWeave; live updates CPI, Waller and Logan, Brent and WTI settlements and low, ING, CoreWeave results, closes Some pages read via search summaries
Axios — Price pressures persisted Core contributors, annual-rate estimate, 2-year move —
Xinhua — Core inflation stays sticky 2-year move, 10-year, Hodge quote, annualised core —
Karmactive — CPI breakdown Component changes, Trezzi estimate, NSA data —
Trading Economics Cleveland Fed nowcast, DXY, USD/JPY and yen crosses Crosses used to derive FX levels
StockTitan — Stock market today, 10 November Waller quote, Logan, Nvidia, single-stock moves, gasoline, 10-year Cites CNBC
GV Wire (Reuters); JournalArta; Investing.com Closes, breadth, 10-year, Nasdaq high, Dow movers —
Reuters via Mining.com and Rallies; Invezz; Cappnotes Gold settlements, spot, Meir, Standard Chartered, Fed odds, Monday settlement, copper, natural gas Two gold settlement figures: $4,030.20 and $4,039.20
Discovery Alert; The Private Banker Silver, Goldman forecast cut, CPM support, 2026 low, Logan headline, ETF outflows —
Cornerstone; Tradingpedia; Emranews; Rio Times; Oil & Gas 360 Oil path, OPEC survey, Brew, $118 high, intraday low —
TASS (citing EIA) EIA STEO forecasts —
PRICE Futures Group (Flynn) Gasoline, diesel, Dated Brent, JPMorgan Opinion and data
OilPrice; Invezz (headlines) Hormuz LNG, Saudi tanker coordination, Rezaei, Ukraine talks, Anthropic IPO range 🟥 Headlines / digest only
FXStreet; MQL5; Forex.com; Forexuro; Investing.com USD/JPY path, BoJ, technical levels, positioning Technical views as reported
Benzinga; Rolling Out; GuruFocus; TheStreet CoreWeave details, after-hours moves After-hours moves differ by source
MUFG — FX Weekly Week-ahead calendar times —

 

Reports belong to The Concept Trading and Van Hung Nguyen

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